For more than a decade, higher education leaders have discussed the looming "enrollment cliff," the expected drop in traditional college-age students caused by lower birth rates after the Great Recession of 2008. The phrase has become so common over the years that it often feels like a distant concern. But that future is now.
Demographics only tell part of the story. Today's students are weighing more postsecondary options than ever, including workforce training programs, short-term credentials, and direct-to-work opportunities. At the same time, concerns about affordability and return on investment continue to shape their choices. The question is no longer whether the enrollment cliff will arrive. It is how institutions will respond.
The traditional enrollment playbook is losing ground in a shifting environment. Many institutions built their strategies around increasing numbers of high school graduates within a set geographic area, but student populations are fluctuating, and demographic effects vary widely. Some institutions are finding success by expanding recruitment markets, strengthening K-12 partnerships, and engaging students earlier in their educational paths.
Additionally, the current test-optional environment at many institutions can potentially leave admissions teams in need of reliable, comparable information that assessments like the ACT test can provide to help them understand academic preparation across varied schools, grading contexts, and student experiences.
The most effective enrollment strategies now focus on building stronger relationships, including with families, rather than simply generating more leads.
I saw this firsthand during my time leading enrollment at the University of Arizona. Instead of relying on traditional recruitment markets, we engaged in the following strategies:
These efforts helped build our enrollment pipeline as demographic shifts and testing policies began to reshape the landscape.
Institutions are investing in outreach that helps students understand their options and see a clear path from education to career success. Students and families want evidence that educational investments will lead to meaningful employment and opportunities.
ACT scores can be part of that conversation, helping students demonstrate academic readiness, strengthen admissions and scholarship applications, and better understand where they may need additional preparation to embark on a successful academic and career pathway.
Assessments like ACT’s WorkKeys NCRC can help inform students’ post-graduate workforce readiness, helping them network and persist while in college.
And because ACT scores are tied to college-ready skills and first-year course expectations with ACT’s college readiness benchmarks, they can add useful context to holistic review processes and help admissions teams evaluate readiness and resilience consistently across applicants.
When institutions can spot potential barriers early, they are better able to provide the support students need for success. The institutions that thrive in the coming decade will not only recruit students effectively but fully support them through the process.
In an increasingly competitive landscape, effective recruitment is becoming less about reaching more students and more about reaching the right students with the right message and resources.
As institutions face enrollment challenges, many are rethinking how they use readiness data throughout the student journey.
Even before students enroll, readiness data such as from assessments can provide more information than just a score report. Proper course placement helps students start in programs that match their preparation levels, increasing the chance of success and reducing barriers that may lead to attrition. For students, sharing ACT scores can also provide an additional way to demonstrate college readiness and distinguish academic strengths within a broader admissions profile, even at test-optional institutions.
As traditional-age student numbers decline, many institutions are turning to new audiences for growth. Adult learners represent one of the largest opportunities available. Millions of Americans have earned some college credit but never completed a credential or degree. Others are seeking additional education or training to advance their careers or adapt to changing workforce needs.
Serving adult learners requires more than extending traditional recruitment to an older group. These learners often juggle work, family, and financial responsibilities. Many are looking for ways to document skills and earn credentials that are recognized by employers. Workforce assessments, such as ACT WorkKeys, and career development resources can help adult learners move their experiences to employment opportunities.
While every institution faces different realities, several strategies could be effective across the board.
Strengthen and invest in partnerships. Build sustained relationships with districts, counselors, and community organizations to introduce college earlier, provide clear pathways to enrollment, and help students understand how ACT scores can support admissions, scholarships, course placement, and planning.
Engage families throughout the enrollment process. Students continue to make college decisions with their parents and supporters. Families are an integral part of recruitment.
Invest in retention as an enrollment strategy. It is critical to not only bring in the upcoming class, but to retain them through completion. This investment will produce greater long-term enrollment gains and support students through successful completion.
Create flexible pathways. While this is important for all students, it is especially necessary for adult learners. Consider credit for prior learning, stackable credentials, and employer partnerships.
A common thread among institutions adapting successfully to enrollment challenges is their ability to make informed decisions using timely, actionable data. Institutions need clear insight into future student populations, shifting readiness patterns, and new pathways from K-12 education into postsecondary education and careers.
The ability to identify trends allows leaders to make more strategic choices about recruitment and student support. This is where data and assessment insights play a vital role. Institutions’ individualized ACT Class Profile and Grad Class data are just two reports that can strengthen connections across educational pathways and provide higher education leaders with a clearer picture of the students in the recruitment pipeline, including patterns in score sending, academic readiness, and enrollment behavior that can inform admissions strategy.
The enrollment cliff brings real challenges, but it also offers opportunity. Institutions across the country are rethinking how they recruit students, support persistence, engage adult learners, and use data to guide decisions. That includes using admissions tools and readiness measures more intentionally, not as isolated decision points, but as part of a broader strategy to understand students’ preparation, potential, and support needs. In many ways, the changes driven by demographic pressure are the same ones needed to improve student outcomes and strengthen institutional resilience.
The enrollment cliff may be here, but it doesn't have to define the future of higher education. The institutions that adapt by broadening their view of what students need, invest in student success, expand the definition of who a learner is, and use data to guide decisions will be best positioned not only to navigate the changes on the horizon, but to thrive because of them.